Moderate forecasts with subject matter experts

Moderate forecasts

The collated quarterly expenditure/claims forecasts from programme deliverers are moderated class with subject matter experts. The moderation is to consider whether any adjustment is required to the collated forecast, e.g. due to optimism bias. This entails comparison of actual expenditure/claims with the previous and current forecasts.

The result of moderation is a set of expenditure forecasts by activity class for input to cashflow modelling. In the case of state highway and local road maintenance programmes, emergency works are forecast separately from routine maintenance.

Revenue forecasts are also moderated at the same time. This includes comparing revenue collected with the previous and current forecasts.